The Fake-Out: Your brain thinks you’re winning but you’re already losing

February is the most dangerous month on the strategic calendar.

In January we are hopped up on adrenaline from the New Year start. March brings the rush of the first quarter end. February? February is when we fake ourselves out.

Odds are you have been feeling productive. Your calendar is full. You are clearing your inbox, at least of the important current stuff. You are "in the swing of things."

But, look closely at what you are doing. You may just find a terrifying reality: Your actions aren't strategic. Most of what you are doing likely does not directly relate to executing your 2026 strategic business plan. You are just managing the rush of business and day-to-day processes. Nothing much has changed since 2025.

I hope this is not the case for you. Too many of us get sucked into (or never escape) the subtle mechanism of what's called the Implementation Gap. It doesn't announce itself with blaring trumpets; it hides behind our mask of "busy-ness."

As I wrote in my book Big Decisions, businesses fail less often because they lack vision. They fail more often because the urgent yet less important (call it "the whirlwind") devours the important (strategic decision making and strategy execution).

And mid February is the time when many of us get the creeping realization that our efforts are not necessarily leading us to the positive change we planned for.

The "Default Path" trap (My lesson from 1968)

For perspective on why we drift off course, consider a pivotal moment in my life when I was a young editorial intern at the Chicago Daily News.

It was 1968. I was covering the "police riot" in Chicago's Grant Park during the Democratic National Convention. I felt important. I felt that I was on a clear path. As senior in the journalism program at the University of Illinois, I assumed my next step was to get a master’s degree in journalism. I had made a commitment to the field and my momentum was taking me there.

Then, Emmett Dedmon, the newspaper’s legendary Managing Editor, a WWII flier who was shot down and spent time in a German prison camp, an icon and a force of nature, called me into his office.

"So, what are you going to do when you graduate?" he asked.

"Oh, I'll probably get a master's degree in journalism," I replied, confident in my default choice.

He looked at me and said, "Why in the world would you do that? Unless you want to teach, get a degree in something useful, like business or law." Oops, no, I did not want to teach!

In that moment, Dedmon exposed my susceptibility to the Commitment Heuristic—my brain’s lazy desire to just keep doing what I was already doing. I was "drifting" into a career path not because it was the best strategic choice, but because it was the easiest path to walk, the default.

Because of Dedmon's intervention, I pivoted to the University of Chicago for my MBA, which led me to the career I love today.

In February, your actions or non-actions may resemble those of a 20-year-old Lee: You are drifting toward the "default" (business as usual) because it is known and feels safe and consistent. Indeed, what would you say to an Emmett Dedmon who called you into his office and asked, "Why in the world are you doing that?"

The "Force" Trap ("I'm yelling from my helicopter!")

If the first enemy of executing our plan is the Default Path, the second is the Illusion of Control. We think that if we just work harder, talk louder, or push faster, we can force reality to bend to our wishes rather than follow the logical path of doing the important work of plan execution.

I saw where this leads when I worked at the savings and loan industry's trade association in the early 1980s.

Editor of the association's magazine for bankers, I was sitting at my desk when I got a call from Charles Knapp, the board chair of the nation’s largest savings and loan. He wasn’t calling to chat or compliment us; he was calling from his helicopter (which he made explicitly clear) to yell at me about a story we were about to publish regarding lawsuits against his company.

Knapp believed he could force his reality on the world. He believed his sheer force of will (and his helicopter) could override doing the legitimate work. He was ensnared in the Force Can Do It trap.

But the legitimate world didn't care about his helicopter or his yelling. We published the story. Knapp was eventually ousted, his bank failed, and he went to prison.

In February and at other times, we may act like Knapp (hopefully with less yelling and more legitimacy). We see our plan slipping, and instead of seeing that we need to do the work and address the root cause (the "silent killer"), we just try to "power through" and bend reality to our will. We work late. We micro-manage. We try to force things.

Instead, we should just "do the work" of smart strategic decision making and strategy execution.

Optimism Bias: We ignore “The Silent Killers"

The third enemy of smart strategic decision making and strategy execution is Optimism Bias, and for this, consider the French attempt to build the Panama Canal. (Yes, France invested huge sums of money and lives into a failed canal building effort, which the U.S. then acquired for a song and completed.)

Ferdinand de Lesseps, the French business leader driving the project, was a hero for overseeing the construction of the Suez Canal. He assumed he could apply the same "sea-level" strategy to Panama. He ignored the "silent killers" - the mountains that had to be dug through and were prone to landslides (there are no mountains in the sandy desert) and the mosquitoes that carried yellow fever (not an issue in Egypt). Because of his past success, he was drastically over-optimistic, ignoring the warnings of engineers and other experts, and discounted terrain and disease as barriers to success.

These barriers were real and did not disappear because of de Lessup’s optimism. The project failed spectacularly, bankrupting the canal company and costing thousands of lives, not because the vision of a canal was wrong, but because the execution ignored the friction of reality.

Odds are, your 2026 plan has "silent killers" too.

• Is it a key employee who is silently disengaging?

• Is it a cash flow pinch hiding behind your "booked" revenue?

• Is it your reluctance to fire a toxic client?

Your plan has failed!

So, how do we stop the drift and our denial of reality before it becomes a disaster? We can trick our brain and use Prospective Foresight.

Psychologist/strategist Gary Klein introduced a concept called the Pre-Mortem, a form of Prospective Foresight. Unlike a risk assessment (which asks "what might go wrong?"), a Pre-Mortem demands you assume it has gone wrong. Klein’s research shows this practice increases risk detection by 30%.

I am asking my coaching group to do this exercise this week, and I invite you to do it right now.

The 2-Minute Time Machine

Fast Forward: It is December 31, 2026.

Scenario: You made little progress toward your strategic goals. The revenue isn’t there. The new offering flopped. You are still working 60 hours a week. Plan implementation has failed.

Think and Imagine: Close your eyes. Think about your big strategic goals. Imagine the failure. Be forensic.

The Question: What really caused this?

Don't give me the "economy" or "bad luck." Be forensic.

Was it the "Default Trap" (distraction)? Did I drift into answering emails instead of doing key strategic things (getting that CRM, finding a VA, setting pricing for the new offering)? Did I let the "whirlwind" steal my morning strategy time block?

Was it the "Force Trap" (burnout)? Did I act like Charles Knapp and try to force things from my helicopter instead of engaging in smart strategic decision making and strategy execution?

Was it the “Optimism Trap (ignoring reality)? Was I was overly optimistic? Did I deny mountains and Yellow Fever like Ferdinand de Lesseps?

Change things up… Now!

Once you identify the specific reason or reasons your plan died in this imaginary future, you have found what you need to change.

If you are going with the flow and just managing the rush of business and day-to-day processes:

Keep your vision and strategic priorities upfront and check in regularly to assure that your actions are aligned with plan success.

If you are trying to power through to success and are forcing things:

Back off, review your goals and strategies, and assess if what you are doing is the critical path that will get you there.

If the world is not the world you envisioned when you set your plan:

Change your plan so it will work.

And be specific, don’t deal in generalities like I will spend less time reading email. For instance, if your Pre-Mortem reveals that you failed because "I got too busy delivering the work to sell the new work," your change is not "Try harder." Your change is: "I will outsource 10 hours of delivery by March 1st, even if it hurts my margins temporarily."

Prepare for the worst by changing now!

Commit to implement

Don't let the "busy-ness" of February fool you. If you aren't actively rising above the daily friction and countering the silent drift today, you are already going off course from where you want to wind up.

Look at your "Silent Killer.“

Write down ONE specific commitment to stop it. Examples:

If your killer is “email overload," your commitment is “Only review email twice a day."

If your killer is “I need to do it all,” your commitment is “Drop, automate, or delegate.”

If your killer is “no prospects appear,” your commitment is “change the business development process.”

Take a little time now. Visit the future. Kill your plan in your mind and take steps now to save it in reality.